7 comments on “Fisher Pry Analysis of Kinect – 99% replacement in next 10 years

  1. Hi Sameer,
    I was just reading your post regarding Fisher Pry analysis of Kinect and have one question. Does the model take into consideration replacment purchases once the product has reached the end of it’s lifecycle or does this only represent new adopters (i.e. units sales versus penetration).

    Thank you!

    • Hi Liesl, thanks for your question. In this we consider replacement purchases after the end life of first generation product. This is taken care of in the value of variable ‘b’ (adoption of technology).

      Hope this helps.

  2. Hi Sameer,

    Very interesting article. I am relatively new in the field of technological forecasting. I have therefore one question. Why is the Fisher Pry model not sufficient when there is a need for a major behavioral change? Is there some literature about this subject?

    Thanks.

  3. Hi,

    Very interesting article. I am new in the field of technological forecasting. Therefore I have a question. Why is technological forecasting not possible with the Fisher Pry method if major behavior changes are needed?

    Thanks in advance.

  4. In the above article you describe that the Fisher Pry model is used for predicting diffusion of new technologies which do not require major behavioral changes. I can’t find literature about the statement that relates behavioral changes with the Fisher Pry model. My question is how do you know that the Fisher Pry model can’t be used with major behavioral changes. Do you have a source on this ? I could really use this for my research. Thanks in advance.

  5. Hi Arjan,

    Many apologies for reverting so late, and thanks for your question.
    In Fisher Pry model, we need to put a number to the attribute and then factor it in. So when we try to factor in a behavioral attribute, it becomes difficult to quantify that. Thus, we try to avoid using Fisher pry for major behavioral changes. To justify a value on behavior change is debatable and hence, difficult to defend.

    I will look for some literature that I have on this topic, and let you know.

    Regards,
    Sameer

    • Thanks, I am very grateful for your help. It will be very helpful for my research project (accelerating innovating products in the commercial space industry). May I ask two more questions: How do you define behavioral change, and when is decided this change is major?

      Thanks a lot.

      Best regards,

      Arjan Schrauwen – PhD student University of Technology Eindhoven

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